Really appreciate your perspective and input – valuable to hear as you say from the coal face! – not sure as to the likelihood of short term price appreciation.

I had certainly heard that whilst 20% is the starting point for bank as ever everything is up for negotiation!

There is also the obvious option of getting someone to guarantee the loan. What better way is there for a parent or a grandparent to help out their child/grandchild. No money needed, just equity… Bet there will alot of this going on in the next few years

An excellent contribution with valuable insight. Clearly there are a multitude of factors that effect a market like real estate, added to which real estate is actually only a market as an aggregate of thousands of individual actions.

Unlike commodity markets or product markets, real estate is not a homogeneous product driven by consistent market forces, every action in this market happens at a unique time for a unique property. That is why there is such varied opinion and equally why it is so hard to forecast trends.

My proposition is that there is no record of any developed western economy where a real estate market has stopped – there is always activity as there has been in the past 12 months – at a level half of the prior few years. Clearly in those active years there was a high degree of speculation which fuels more sales. My view is that sales levels will rise in 2009 (again prices I don’t believe will rise – they are more than likely to fall), that is my opinion.

Rest assured this blog will be writing and to be honest more often reporting activity, statistics as will the Unconditional blog on the realestate.co.nz website in 6 months time, 12 months time and 24 months time.

Out of interest one aspect of Zoodle which is at this stage (we have only been operating the site for 15 days) is not yet proven is that Zoodle’s success as a property information website should not be significantly impacted by flat or buoyant markets. Property information and buying property reports should be as relevant in a buyers market as we are in now as well as a rampant sellers market as we saw a few years ago – so in theory there is no self serving element to this blog writing and forecast boom or bust!

I understand the difference you are making between price and volume – good that you have separated that and made that clear.
After this steep decline, it seems that the only way is up.
The assumption you have made is that we have reached the bottom.
Unfortunately Real estate activity is tied to our economic situation, which is by means clear – or finished.
There have been a number of interesting stories since you posted this article. The biggest impact is the OCR decision on Thursday. That’s great news for mortgage and loan-holders, but it doesn’t return the market to where it was – or even stabilise it.
Another article I saw stated that 70% of the worlds CEOs do not see a way out of the economic recession any time soon. These are the guys who are in the business of knowing where they are going, and chasing the money. If they haven’t got an idea of when the tide turns, who does?

Yet another article out today is the Building consents have dropped to a 20 year low. This isn’t likely to rise rapidly.

@Ross – Banks DO have to justify who they loan to and higher deposits are now required. You can say that it’s a fallacy that Banks require a 20% deposit across the board – that might even be true. For the majority of lenders – it’s not true.
Further – the majority of people ho have been in the market for more than 5 years – if they sell their house, they still have to buy in the same market.
You’re using some very blanket stats – which nullifies hat you are saying. SOME properties no doubt have increased 100% – not all. Your area does not represent the rest of the country.
@Alastair – It’s an emotional or irrational decision if you can afford it.
If you are smarter than that – it’s really not.

I see the Real Estate market declining for a while yet – and then stagnating as people wait to see where things go with the economy. We are not immune to this, although we probably aren’t feeling the brunt of it like some others are.

Buying in a falling market is like trying to catch a sharp knife.

I’d like to see a follow-up post to this post in 6 months time and in a years time – to keep you honest.

It is a fallacy that banks require 20% deposit across the board.

Only a small proportion of house buyers have a problem with deposits, generally first home buyers and the government shared equity scheme is helping them out.

The majority of people who own a home have owned for more than 5 years and not too worried about prices dropping 8% (QV latest figure) to 13% given that they have gone up 100% or more.

Just today I showed a past client a home – he purchased his current home from me for $290,000 10 years ago – that house is now worth at least $850,000 and now he is looking to upgrade. People who have been in the market for a long while have little to fear in my opinion and a stable or declining market is a great time to change house.