Posts Tagged ‘foreclosure’

The latest data of mortgagee sales for May show that there continues to be no let up in the pain being suffered by heavily indebted property owners. Earlier in the year there appeared to be signs of an easing and a sense that the worst may have been over. The May figures have now put pay to that.

Data collected and analysed by Terralink show that in the month of May there were 264 registered mortgagee sales, that is up from 246 in April and up 7% from the figure of 247 in May 2009.

The chart below track the monthly sales since the beginning of 2007 – long before the recession which has so significantly driven the situations which have led to this scale of mortgagee sale.

In the period between January and May of this year a total of 1,029 properties have been sold as mortgagee sales – this is up 6%. However what is more significant is the fact that whilst year-on-year mortgagee sales are up 6% across these first 5 months of 2010 the total sales of all properties across NZ is down 10%. This has resulted in mortgagee sales for 2010 now representing over 4% of all sales. In the month of May just over 5% – or put another way 1 in 20 properties sold were mortgagee sales. The chart below tracks this trend as the proportion of all sales as represented by mortgagee sales since the beginning of 2007.

Another alarming trend as highlighted by Terralink in their analysis of the mortgagee sales in May was a significant change in the type of property owners who are being forced to sell. Their was seen to be an increase in the number of mortgagee sales of properties owned by individuals rather than companies or mulitple owners. It appears that more and more of those individuals are losing their only property – and more than likely it’s their family home. In 2009 when the perception was, that the peak of mortgagee sales was being experienced, it now appears that most of those were properties owned by property investors who had over-extended themselves during the property boom. This year the pain seems to have shifted to ordinary New Zealand families.

In May 2009 just under 50% of mortgagee sales were for properties owned by an individual. In the latest data for May 2010 that number has increased to 62%, and one in five of those forced sales was held by an individual who only owned one property.

For clarification mortgagee sales data is derived from legal registrations of actual mortgagee sales as detailed on the legal certificate of title , these numbers may contain sales for a variety of property and land transactions. These transactions occur when the owner of the property has become in default of the terms of the loan from a bank or other lending institution. In  most cases such lenders endeavour to come to an agreement with the owner to arrange suitable payment terms, however if these terms are not met or the owner simply cannot manage to make the necessary level of payment the lender will have no alternative but to instigate a mortgagee sale whereby they take possession of the legal title to the property and sell the property to recover the outstanding amount of the loan. If any surplus from the sale is available after paying agents fees and the lender then that will be paid to the property owner.

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The latest data of mortgagee sales for the month of February show that the pressure on homeowners struggling under mountains of debt may be easing.

A total of 121 mortgagee sales were registered in the month of February in data released by Terralink International. This total compares to 124 for the same month last year. This is the first time since November 2007 that the year on year change has shown a negative variance. For the past 27 months the picture has looked bleaker every month with some months showing year on year increases of up to 8 times. On a seasonally adjusted basis the month of February showed a 30% decline from January.

As the chart below shows the figures for February are traditionally lower than other months, and it is quite likely that the March sales may well be higher than February has been.

NZ mortgagee sales Feb 2010 - Terralink Zoodle

Seen over the course of the past 3 years it is very clear the impact that the economic recession had on distressed homeowners who were forced to accept mortgagee sales as a route to exit the debt burden.

NZ mortgagee sales by month Jan 07 to Feb 10 Terralink Zoodle

These trends in mortgagee sales naturally track closely the number of listings that come onto the property market as mortgagee sales or mortgagee auctions. Realestate.co.nz provides a detailed tracking of these listings for the past 3 years on a weekly basis. The latest data is that there are currently 291 properties being marketed on the website as mortgagee sales. The chart below track the progressive build of listings over the period of 2008 and then the subsequent decline in number which began around a year ago.

NZ mortgagee properties as featured on Realestate.co.nz Apr 2010

In terms of regional breakdown of the sales of mortgagee properties, the majority of the sales are to be found in the larger regions of Auckland (37%), Waikato (11%), Canterbury and Wellington (7% each). The slightly higher representation of Northland at 9% of all sales in February and Otago (inc Queenstown) at 8% of sales would tend to indicate pressure in holiday homes potentially.

The regional breakdown on February sales is detailed below with the comparative latest 3 month average figures as well as year on year variance.

NZ mortgagee sales by region Feb 2010 Zoodle Terralink

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As 2009 ended, so 2010 began with continued high levels of mortgagee sales across NZ. Whilst the number of mortgagee sales recorded in January at 196 was down from the December figure of 252 it was up 30% over the 1st month of 2009.

As commented by Mike Donald (Managing Director of Terralink) “We do often see a drop in mortgagee sales in January, in fact there were fewer mortgagee sales in January than there were December the month before. This may be because January is generally a quiet business month in New Zealand as many of us are on holiday”

He went on to say “I don’t expect to see mortgagee sales returning to pre-recession numbers at all in 2010. I wouldn’t expect to see a major decline on forced sales until at least the middle of 2011,”

The fact is that pre-recession levels of mortgagee sales as seen through the period up until 2008 would only average around 50 per month, so clearly the current levels are upwards of 4 times that level. The chart below tracks comparative months mortgagee sales over the period of the last 3 years.

NZ mortgagee sales foreclosure sales to Jan 2010

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tip-4There is no single NZ real estate market.

There is a local market in a suburb made up of buyers and sellers who are endeavouring to match each other’s needs – into this market you are considering your entry so be wary of applying country wide trends to your local areas.

It is entirely possible that within today’s market where property prices have trended down by on average 4.4% in the past year (REINZ data Jan 09 year on year % change) you could well find that in a particular suburb at a particular price point the average price may actually be up by 5% or down by 20% – remember the figure of 4.4% price decline is made up of 3,706 properties selling in Jan 09 as matched to 5,186 properties selling in Jan 08.

The other consideration to appreciate is that with such extreme economic conditions a certain number of property sales are clearly distressed sales where the lender has foreclosed on the borrower in a mortgagee sale. The number of mortgagee listings on realestate.co.nz has grow significantly over the past 18 months as a result of these circumstances. These sales often are closed at prices below market average as the seller is not in these circumstances a “willing seller”. These sales which although representing a small percentage of all sales, never the less can effect the average price in the market.

The best judge of property price movements are the local sales reports available on Zoodle – for just $24.95 you get a comprehensive assessment of 20 recent local sales from the local market – just select the property you are interested in and buy the Local Sales Report to enable you to make an informed decision about those 20 local sales – take a walk around that neighbourhood and look at those properties or better still check out each one on Zoodle form the comfort of your armchair.

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